Race and Police Shootings: Why Data Sampling Matters

When reading headlines about findings from data, always ask: “To what population does this conclusion apply?” Brian D’Alessandro explains eloquently why sampling matters.

mathbabe

This is a guest post by Brian D’Alessandro, who daylights as the Head of Data Science at Zocdoc and as an Adjunct Professor with NYU’s Center for Data Science. When not thinking probabilistically, he’s drumming with the indie surf rock quarter Coastgaard.

I’d like to address the recent study by Roland Fryer Jr  from Harvard University, and associated NY Times coverage, that claims to show zero racial bias in police shootings. While this paper certainly makes an honest attempt to study this very important and timely problem, it ultimately suffers from issues of data sampling and subjective data preparation. Given the media attention it is receiving, and the potential policy and public perceptual implications of this attention, we as a community of data people need to comb through this work and make sure the headlines are consistent with the underlying statistics.

First thing’s first: is there really zero…

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Introduction to Machine Learning Talk

There was an amazing turnout at last night’s DataPhilly meetup (~200 people!). I was completely delighted by the turnout and people’s engagement level. Here are the slides of the talk I gave to set up the evening with a high-level introduction to machine learning.

 

Speaking at DataPhilly February 2016

The next DataPhilly meetup will feature a medley of machine-learning talks, including an Intro to ML from yours truly. Check out the speakers list and be sure to RSVP. Hope to see you there!

Thursday, February 18, 2016

6:00 PM to 9:00 PM

Speakers:

  • Corey Chivers
  • Randy Olson
  • Austin Rochford

Corey Chivers (Penn Medicine)

Abstract: Corey will present a brief introduction to machine learning. In his talk he will demystify what is often seen as a dark art. Corey will describe how we “teach” machines to learn patterns from examples by breaking the process into its easy-to-understand component parts. By using examples from fields as diverse as biology, health-care, astrophysics, and NBA basketball, Corey will show how data (both big and small) is used to teach machines to predict the future so we can make better decisions.

Bio: Corey Chivers is a Senior Data Scientist at Penn Medicine where he is building machine learning systems to improve patient outcomes by providing real-time predictive applications that empower clinicians to identify at risk individuals. When he’s not pouring over data, he’s likely to be found cycling around his adoptive city of Philadelphia or blogging about all things probability and data at bayesianbiologist.com.

Randy Olson (University of Pennsylvania Institute for Biomedical Informatics):

Automating data science through tree-based pipeline optimization

Abstract: Over the past decade, data science and machine learning has grown from a mysterious art form to a staple tool across a variety of fields in business, academia, and government. In this talk, I’m going to introduce the concept of tree-based pipeline optimization for automating one of the most tedious parts of machine learning — pipeline design. All of the work presented in this talk is based on the open source Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT), which is available on GitHub at https://github.com/rhiever/tpot.

Bio: Randy Olson is an artificial intelligence researcher at the University of Pennsylvania Institute for Biomedical Informatics, where he develops state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to solve biomedical problems. He regularly writes about his latest adventures in data science at RandalOlson.com/blog, and tweets about the latest data science news at http://twitter.com/randal_olson.

Austin Rochford (Monetate):

Abstract: Bayesian optimization is a technique for finding the extrema of functions which are expensive, difficult, or time-consuming to evaluate. It has many applications to optimizing the hyperparameters of machine learning models, optimizing the inputs to real-world experiments and processes, etc. This talk will introduce the Gaussian process approach to Bayesian optimization, with sample code in Python.

Bio: Austin Rochford is a Data Scientist at Monetate. He is a former mathematician who is interested in Bayesian nonparametrics, multilevel models, probabilistic programming, and efficient Bayesian computation.

A probabilistic justification to carpe diem

There’s a curious thing about unlikely independent events: no matter how rare, they’re most likely to happen right away.

Let’s get hypothetical

You’ve taken a bet that pays off if you guess the exact date of the next occurrence of a rare event (p = 0.0001 on any given day i.i.d). What day do you choose? In other words, what is the most likely day for this rare event to occur?

Setting aside for now why in the world you’ve taken such a silly sounding bet, it would seem as though a reasonable way to think about it would be to ask: what is the expected number of days until the event? That must be the best bet, right?

We can work out the expected number of days quite easily as 1/p = 10000. So using the logic of expectation, we would choose day 10000 as our bet.

Let’s simulate to see how often we would win with this strategy. We’ll simulate the outcomes by flipping a weighted coin until it comes out heads. We’ll do this 100,000 times and record how many flips it took each time.

p0001

The event occurred on day 10,000 exactly 35 times. However, if we look at a histogram of our simulation experiment, we can see that the time it took for the rare event to happen was more often short, than long. In fact, the event occurred 103 times on the very first flip (the most common Time to Event in our set)!

So from the experiment it would seem that the most likely amount of time to pass until the rare event occurs is 0. Maybe our hypothetical event was just not rare enough. Let’s try it again with p=0.0000001, or an event with a 1 in 1million chance of occurring each day.

p0000001

While now our event is extremely unlikely to occur, it’s still most likely to occur right away.

Existential Risk

What does this all have to do with seizing the day? Everything we do in a given day comes with some degree of risk. The Stanford professor Ronald A. Howard conceived of a way of measuring the riskiness of various day-to-day activities, which he termed the micromort. One micromort is a unit of risk equal to p = 0.000001 (1 in a million chance) of death. We are all subject to a baseline level of risk in micromorts, and additional activities may add or subtract from that level (skiing, for instance adds 0.7 micromorts per day).

While minimizing the risks we assume in our day-to-day lives can increase our expected life span, the most likely exact day of our demise is always our next one. So carpe diem!!

Post Script:

Don’t get too freaked out by all of this. It’s just a bit of fun that comes from viewing the problem in a very specific way. That is, as a question of which exact day is most likely. The much more natural way to view it is to ask, what is the relative probability of the unlikely event occurring tomorrow vs any other day but tomorrow. I leave it to the reader to confirm that for events with p < 0.5, the latter is always more likely.

Categorizing NIPS papers using LDA topic modeling

The Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS) has recently listed this year’s accepted papers. There are 403 paper titles listed, which made for great morning coffee reading, trying to pick out the ones that most interest me.

Being a machine learning conference, it’s only reasonable that we apply a little machine learning to this (decidedly _small_) data.

Building off of the great example code in a post by Jordan Barber on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) with Python, I scraped the paper titles and built an LDA topic model with 5 topics. All of the code to reproduce this post is available on github. Here are the top 10 most probable words from each of the derived topics:

0 1 2 3 4
0 learning learning optimization learning via
1 models inference networks bayesian models
2 neural sparse time sample inference
3 high models stochastic analysis networks
4 stochastic non model data deep
5 dimensional optimization convex inference learning
6 networks algorithms monte spectral fast
7 graphs multi carlo networks variational
8 optimal linear neural bandits neural
9 sampling convergence information methods convolutional

Normally, we might try to attach some kind of label to each topic using our beefy human brains and subject matter expertise, but I didn’t bother with this — nothing too obvious stuck out at me. If you think that you have appropriate names for them feel free to let me know. Given that we are only working with the titles (no abstracts or full paper text), I think that there aren’t obvious human-interpretable topics jumping out. But let’s not let that stop us from proceeding.

We can also represent the inferred topics with the much maligned, but handy-dandy wordcloud visualization:

Topic: 0
 topic_0
Topic: 1
 topic_1
Topic: 2
 topic_2
Topic: 3
 topic_3
Topic: 4
topic_4

Since we are modeling the paper title generating process as a probability distribution of topics, each of which is a probability distribution of words, we can use this generating process to suggest keywords for each title. These keywords may or may not show up in the title itself. Here are some from the first 10 titles:

================

Double or Nothing: Multiplicative Incentive Mechanisms for Crowdsourcing
Generated Keywords: [u'iteration', u'inference', u'theory']

================

Learning with Symmetric Label Noise: The Importance of Being Unhinged
Generated Keywords: [u'uncertainty', u'randomized', u'neural']

================

Algorithmic Stability and Uniform Generalization
Generated Keywords: [u'spatial', u'robust', u'dimensional']

================

Adaptive Low-Complexity Sequential Inference for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models
Generated Keywords: [u'rates', u'fast', u'based']

================

Covariance-Controlled Adaptive Langevin Thermostat for Large-Scale Bayesian Sampling
Generated Keywords: [u'monte', u'neural', u'stochastic']

================

Robust Portfolio Optimization
Generated Keywords: [u'learning', u'online', u'matrix']

================

Logarithmic Time Online Multiclass prediction
Generated Keywords: [u'complexity', u'problems', u'stein']

================

Planar Ultrametric Rounding for Image Segmentation
Generated Keywords: [u'deep', u'graphs', u'neural']

================

Expressing an Image Stream with a Sequence of Natural Sentences
Generated Keywords: [u'latent', u'process', u'stochastic']

================

Parallel Correlation Clustering on Big Graphs
Generated Keywords: [u'robust', u'learning', u'learning']

Entropy and the most “interdisciplinary” paper title

While some titles are strongly associated with a single topic, others seem to be generated from more even distributions over topics than others. Paper titles with more equal representation over topics could be considered to be, in some way, more interdisciplinary, or at least, intertopicular (yes, I just made that word up). To find these papers, we’ll find which paper titles have the highest information entropy in their inferred topic distribution.

Here are the top 10 along with their associated entropies:

1.22769364291 Where are they looking?
1.1794725784 Bayesian dark knowledge
1.11261338284 Stochastic Variational Information Maximisation
1.06836891546 Variational inference with copula augmentation
1.06224431711 Adaptive Stochastic Optimization: From Sets to Paths
1.04994413148 The Population Posterior and Bayesian Inference on Streams
1.01801236048 Revenue Optimization against Strategic Buyers
1.01652797194 Fast Convergence of Regularized Learning in Games
0.993789478925 Communication Complexity of Distributed Convex Learning and Optimization
0.990764728084 Local Expectation Gradients for Doubly Stochastic Variational Inference

So it looks like by this method, the ‘Where are they looking’ has the highest entropy as a result of topic uncertainty, more than any real multi-topic content.

Introducing Penn Signals at DataPhilly

Last week I had the pleasure of giving a talk to a great audience at DataPhilly about the Data Science mission at Penn Medicine. In the talk I introduced the framework we are building to accelerate the development and deployment of predictive applications in health care.

DataPhillyApril2015

Click for slides (pdf)

Also on the line-up was (sometimes contributor to bayesianbiologist) Matt Sunquist. He demo’d some of plot.ly‘s most recent features to audible gasps of delight for the audience.